Henrythenavigator To Rule Supreme

Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot looks to be a tip-top renewal, featuring as it does the clash between Henrythenavigator and Tamayuz.

The former of course is a dual 2000 Guineas winner, and a four-time Group One winner this season, while Tamayuz has done nothing wrong in his last two starts. They were also Group Ones, beating Raven’s Pass at Chantilly and then 1000 Guineas heroine Natagora and company in the Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville.

It is difficult to choose between the pair but the ground is crucial and they have been threatening to water the track at Ascot this week. That suggests it will be on the fast side and certainly the quickest surface Tamayuz has encountered thus far.

In contrast Henrythenavigator loves top of the ground and I’m sure the ease in the ground was the excuse for his defeat at Longchamp last time where in all honesty he didn’t run too badly. He was going on nicely at the finish and is a better horse under Saturday’s conditions.

On the expected ground I just favour Henrythenavigator especially as the two pacemakers in the race suggest there will be a fierce early gallop. The selection is perfectly suited to coming off a strong pace.

On a line through Raven’s Pass there is little between the two horses. Tamayuz beat him a length-and-a-half in the Prix Jean Prat while John Gosden’s charge has been getting closer to Henrythenavigator in their three meetings this season.

However it seems Raven’s Pass isn’t quite good enough to beat his rival and Henrythenavigator is given the nod in a fascinating renewal.

Sabana Perdida is an interesting representative of the older generation as she has good quality form but not quite up to Group One standard.

The other runner, Winker Watson, has yet to convince me he truly stays a mile.

The Royal Lodge Stakes has attracted some good juvenile colts, notably recently runaway Salisbury winner Cityscape. He was deeply impressive in winning by nine lengths from previous course winner Such Optmisim. The third horse has won subsequently – albeit at a lower level – and you couldn’t knock the performance.

Cityscape is beautifully bred being by Selkirk out of a very smart mare called Tantina. He has it on pedigree and he caught the eye on his only previous start when second to Almiqdaad in a hot maiden. He reopposes here but had the benefit of a previous run when they last met and I expect Cityscape to reverse that form.

One of the chief dangers to the seleciton is Orizaba who won the Champagne Stakes at Goodwood. That form is working out really well, with subsequent Mill Reef winner Lord Shanakill in second while the fifth home, Shahell, has won the Gimcrack and been touched off in the National Stakes in two starts since.

The problem for Orizaba here is he has to give away a three pound penalty, as does Firth Of Fifth, the top horse. I also have a slight doubt about Orizaba getting a stiff mile on pedigree.

Aidan O’Brien runs two and Indian Ocean looks to be the stable number one on jockey bookings. He was beaten a long way behind Mastercraftsman in the National Stakes last time and while the son of Montjeu is open to improvement, it would be a disappointing renewal of the Royal Lodge if he was to win judged on his form to date.

Cityscape is the most interesting runner in the race and my selection.

The Fillies’ Mile has attracted 1000 Guineas favourite Rainbow View and she must take the world of beating.

All formlines point in her direction and that isn’t taking into account the manner of her three wins to date at Newmarket (twice) and then the May Hill at Doncaster.

In the latter-named race she beat Snoqualmie Girl and Lahaleeb with Rose Diamond in fourth. She’d previously chased home Fantasia at Goodwood and that line of form suggests Luca Cumani’s charge will struggle to get close to the favourite. The fifth in the May Hill, Uvinza, was second to Golden Stream on her previous start. The winner that day will improve but again she is it all to do against the favourite.

Rainbow View has been winning her races very easily and will be very hard to beat but is no betting proposition. Just watch and enjoy.

Dreamtheimpossible is an interesting runner for a David Wachman stable that has some very smart juveniles this season. She is a beautifully-bred daughter of Giant’s Causeway out of a very smart American mare called Spain. She won a Listed race at the Curragh last time and is a likely improver.

That said, Rainbow View will be very hard to beat.

The big betting race of the day is the totesport.com Challenge Cup and the one I like here is Signor Peltro who I thought was an unlucky loser at Goodwood last time.

He didn’t get the best of rides for me there when staying on strongly into third behind South Cape. He got too far behind and didn’t get the best of luck in running but strongly suggested he could win races off his current mark.

He’d earlier won at Goodwood over seven furlongs, beating Bunbury Cup winner Little White Lie. The stiff seven here could be ideal for Henry Candy’s charge