All Weather Horses To Follow

SILVER PIVOTAL can become the first filly to win the Winter Derby, the highlight not only of Lingfield’s excellent card on Saturday, but also the whole all-weather season.

The all-weather’s showpiece record has been almost exclusively contested by male horses to date – only five of the 136 runners in the ten runnings of the race have been fillies or mares, and there hasn’t been a single filly or mare in any of the last five renewals.

However, Silver Pivotal is shaping up into a genuinely top-class prospect. She has had only five races to date, but on her fourth career outing she beat Sir Michael Stoute’s Promising lead in a Listed race at York; the runner-up went on to be short-headed in a Group One event two outings later.

After that race, a crack at the Breeders Cup was mentioned, but Silver Pivotal did not return to the track until she made her all-weather debut in January. Racing off a somewhat lenient mark of 98 in a competitive handicap, she travelled strongly and won with quite a bit in hand, despite making her challenge against what is sometimes the unfavoured far rail in the home straight. Her draw in stall 14 may put some people off, but since January 2007 there have been 49 1m2f races with more than 12 runners at Lingfield and horses with a double-figure draw have won 22 of them, so clearly it is not an insurmountable problem. Jamie Spencer is booked, the Butler stable is in fine form, and everything looks set for a big run.

There is no shortage of credible opposition, with the Johnston pair of Dubai’s Touch and Zaham, Irish raider Red Maloney and Michael Jarvis’ impressive recent winner Philatelist heading the dangers. However, for those wanting to back one at longer odds, Alfresco might run better than the official figures would suggest. His career form figures at Lingfield read 62114112, and his most recent effort when staying on strongly over 1m behind Jack Sullivan received a major boost by the latter’s clear-cut Wolverhampton win. Alfresco’s own recent lacklustre run at Dunstall Park is best ignored – he was held up off a pedestrian pace, and in any event he had been below form on his two previous efforts at Wolverhampton. He shapes as if worth a try at this trip and might be worth backing each way, especially as George Baker, who this column has flagged up as having an outstanding record over Lingfield’s tricky 1m2f distance, booked for the first time.

The supporting card is excellent, as is now customary at this meeting. None of the ten declared for the Spring Cup (2.40) are rated over 100, but there are a couple of horses with the potential to be smart, and Tasdeer is the one that catches the eye most. He was a most impressive winner on his second juvenile start at Yarmouth, but then pulled too hard when upped in class in the Group Three Somerville Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket on his only subsequent start. His trainer Michael Jarvis is seldom far wrong if he thinks he has a Pattern race horse on his hands and his record at Lingfield is outstanding (40 wins from 179 runs and a profit of 93 points since the Polytrack was installed).

The other Listed race, the Hever Sprint Stakes, looks very tricky. Excusez Moi would undoubtedly be hard to beat if repeating his recent 6f form, but although he’s always had plenty of talent, he hasn’t always reproduced it on the racecourse, as his record of 3 wins from 31 runs suggests, and I’m not sure he’s the ideal short-odds punt. Matsunosuke is a horse who improved massively last season, and he was an emphatic winner of both his all-weather starts last year, but it remains to be seen if he will be ready to win at this level first time out (though the race should be run to suit with Maltese Falcon, Silver Prelude and Merlins Dancer likely to ensure a good pace). Overall this looks a race best watched for the future, because as well as Matsunosuke, Esteem Machine is another seasonal debutant who should be competitive in the top sprint handicaps later on.

The angle in the 7f handicap (2.10) could be to back Ceremonial Jade beforehand and then look to lay him in running. He is a strong-travelling horse who goes really well here (form at Lingfield reads 122312, excellent second in a 6f Listed race here last time) but on occasions he has not found quite as much as had seemed likely over 7f+ and he is likely to trade at pretty short odds turning for home given how well he usually travels.

Grande Caiman is a fairly confident selection to land the Cortaflex Handicap (4.20). Richard Hannon’s four-year-old provided an excellent example of what can go wrong when an inexperienced 7lb claimer is on board a hold-up horse. Everything went wrong for Charles Eddery at last time, and he suddenly found himself around ten lengths behind and facing an impossible task on the home turn. On Saturday Grande Caiman returns to Lingfield, where he’s four from four, and Richard Hughes takes over the reins. The horse is not straightforward, but that hasn’t stopped him at Lingfield so far, and he can regain the winning thread here despite facing a multitude of in-form rivals (including Polish Power, six lengths in front of him at Wolverhampton but previously comfortably held in second behind the selection over this course and distance). The presence of new course record holder John Terry, the visored Tilapia and Rationale make this the most interesting 1m4f handicap seen at Lingfield this season.

In the other races, Dudley Docker is worth an each-way interest in the finale (see Value Next Time below), whilst Bartercard is worth a chance to prove his promising Flat debut over 7f was no fluke in a competitive-looking 1m maiden (4.55).