Overpriced Horses

Chief Exec was unable to follow up his recent win at Wolverhampton when returning to Dunstall Park last Friday, but there was a valid excuse for his defeat. Again held up at the back of the field, his chances were severely compromised by the slow early pace – the 4f fraction of 52.11 seconds was significantly slower than the average for Wolverhampton’s 7f distance, and it was to his credit that once the pace quickened up he was again able to show a sharp turn of foot. However, the leaders had got away from him and despite finishing with a flourish Chief Exec was still only fourth at the line.

He’ll be a pound higher for this defeat next time, and as this was his second run in blinkers, punters might take the view that the headgear didn’t work second time around, so Chief Exec might be underbet next time.

Most all-weather fans can’t help but have noticed that field sizes have been much smaller than usual this winter. This has probably helped plenty of horses, but one that it definitely hasn’t benefited is Dudley Docker. There are two issues with this horse. The first is that he pulls hard, and is therefore always likely to be better with a strong pace. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that all six of his career wins have come in double-figure fields, and that he is 0-12 in single-figure fields. He had struggled to win in smaller fields on his last five starts prior to running in a 12-runner handicap at Wolverhampton, when he ran on in most eyecatching fashion in the closing stages to finish a never-nearer fifth; his jockey reported that the saddle had slipped.

The second issue, unfortunately, is that Dudley Docker is not very genuine, and has on occasions managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. However, he has been declared in a field of 12 at Lingfield on Saturday and is worth each-way support at likely double-figure odds.

Value Next Time is the name of this column, and it’s not absolutely certain that will apply to Canary Islands, as his next outing will be his third, after which he’ll be qualified for handicaps. But he definitely shaped with promise at Wolverhampton on Saturday in the maiden won by Al Samha – he was caught in an unpromising position towards the rear as the pace slackened around the halfway stage, but then stayed on really well despite hanging left in the straight to finish a never-nearer sixth. He’s been declared at Lingfield on Saturday but is only worth a small bet given that it looks a strong race and it’s his third run; keep an eye on him with a view to the run after, though.

Masked is rapidly turning into one of the unlucky horses of the all-weather season. He has now run four times for new trainer Ralph Beckett, all in competitive races against in-form rivals; he has finished third on all four occasions – and has been put up by the handicapper after all four defeats.

Moreover, his latest effort was a really good one. The fractions over the first ten furlongs of this extended 1m5f event were much the slowest of the eight races run over C&D this year, which would not have suited Masked, who has form over 2m, and he was held up too. Then Seb Sanders was short of room turning for home as the leaders quickened away, but Masked stayed on stoutly once in the clear, finishing faster than any of his rivals and giving the impression he would have won given a truly-run race and a clear run. So even though he has gone up another pound for that effort, he’s still one to be interested in next time.

Hot Horses To Follow

ARAZAN

John Oxx, trainer

“We are looking at the Dewhurst for him now and we just have to hope we get some decent ground. I would expect the ground to be right for us there hopefully, so that’s what we’re looking at.”

ASPEN DARLIN

Winner at Ayr on Saturday

Alan Bailey, trainer

“We have decided to supplement her for the Cheveley Park Stakes. She did it really well at Ayr and she has now won on good to firm ground and heavy so she seems versatile.”

KALAHARI GOLD

Winner at Newbury on Friday

Andrew Balding, trainer

“He’s improving rapidly and is going to be a really smart horse. We’ll go for the Challenge Stakes next.”

KATIYRA

John Oxx, trainer

“We are looking at the Prix de l’Opera for her now and I think she deserves to take her chance after her impressive win in the Blandford Stakes last time. She does handle soft ground and if the ground is going to be on the firm side of good in France, I’m not sure we would run. But as long as it’s not too quick, we will let her take her chance.”

LARKWING

Eric McNamara, trainer

“Whether he is good enough to win from his current rating is another question in a competitive race. There is also hurdling to go back to and I’d say he’ll either run in the Cesarewitch or the good hurdle at Tipperary.”

TAAMEER

Winner at Newbury on Friday

Marcus Tregoning, trainer

“This is the perfect race to introduce potential Classic winners. I hope this one might be, although there’s a long way to go. He’ll go for the Autumn Stakes at Ascot next – the Nayef route. He’s bred to stay a mile and a half and is only going to get better, especially with a winter on his back.”

TRAFFIC GUARD

Jane Chapple-Hyam, trainer

“I was thrilled with his run at Leopardstown and the plan is to take on the winner again in the English Champion Stakes. We are looking forward to have another crack at the winner at Newmarket.”

WAVE ASIDE

Winner at Newbury on Friday

Brian Meehan, trainer

“He did it well and we’ll play it by ear now, but he might be one for the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy.”

Dark Horses | Betting Tips

PROMISING NEWCOMERS

Winged Harriet should have little difficulty in winning before the end of this Flat season, judged on her very narrow defeat in a six-furlong maiden at Newmarket on 19 September. William Haggas’s filly lost out by just a short head behind the more experienced colt Archie Rice and was closing so strongly that only a stride or two after the post she was in front. Winged Harriet appears guaranteed to improve for her debut, as most of Haggas’s two-year-olds do, and her pedigree suggests stepping up in trip will be in her favour next time. By Hawk Wing, she is out of Warning mare whose best distance was one mile.

Taameer earned Derby quotes after his first-time-out victory in the Haynes, Hanson and Clarke Stakes at Newbury on that same day and, though I shall remain sceptical about his Classics prospects until he beats more testing opposition, there are sound reasons for believing he can score again. Taameer came home half a length ahead of Full Toss, while in receipt of 4lb, and that bare form indicates he has a fair chance of making a mark at Listed level. His breeding offers hope of progression, too, as he is by Beat Hollow out of a Damister mare, which suggests a mile and a quarter may be perfect for him next term.

Just thirty-five minutes later on that Newbury card, Phillipina caught my eye when finishing seventh in what looked a warmish seven-furlong maiden event for juvenile fillies. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, this well-related daughter of Medicean could never quite muster the pace required to get to grips with the winner, Lissarina, but she stayed on nicely without being hard pressed and was beaten only a little more than three lengths in total. Phillipina is from a family of Group-class performers, such as Cesare, Embraced, Hellenic, Islington and Nowhere To Exit, so she should certainly improve with experience.

CODEBREAKERS

Bearing in mind the sound nature of the contest in which Phillipina took seventh spot, it seems prudent for me to point out that the runner-up, Super Sleuth , showed marked improvement on her earlier form when running Lissarina to half a length. Super Sleuth had also finished only seventh on her debut, but, like so many of Brian Meehan’s juveniles, she looked a great deal sharper second time out. By Selkirk, and from a fast family, she may never want much farther than seven, but she can notch a success soon.

Jumping fans are already gearing up for a winter of thrills and the early signs are that Alan King’s team is, once again, in tremendous shape. So, while the three-year-old Tuanku may not prove one of King’s superstars between now and the Cheltenham Festival, my advice is to follow the son of Tagula until he gets beaten. Tuanku got his hurdling career off to the best possible start by landing a two-mile event at Plumpton on 21 September and connections are more than hopeful of a follow-up win under a penalty.

DIGGING THE DIRT

I noted last week that the heavy rainfall experienced this summer had served to raise the standard of all-weather maidens and another case in point was the divided seven-furlong contest at Kempton on 22 September. Both legs should throw up a good few future winners and my first pick of the beaten runners was Ghanaati , who filled third place in the (much faster) first division behind Ave. Ghanaati lost out by an aggregate of around three lengths, and, considering both the winner and the runner-up, Say No Now, had already shown distinct promise, her debut effort was highly commendable. It was made even more so by the fact that this Barry Hills-trained filly forfeited ground with a sluggish start and was then obliged to make her challenge in the middle of a track, when staying close to the inside rail is usually the best manoeuvre. Ghanaati should certainly have gained from her first experience of racing and she is bred to benefit from longer distances, being by Giant’s Causeway out of Sarayir, a more than useful winner over a mile and a quarter from the family of Nashwan, Unfuwain and Nayef.

NOTED ON THE GALLOPS

Henry Cecil is poised to launch the racing career of Alpha Tauri and, if his morning exercises can be used as a guide to his ability, the colt should not take long to collect. He has been shaping up nicely, rubbing shoulders with some decent two-year-old winners, and ought to be fit for his first outing. A son of Aldebaran, Alpha Tauri comes from a fine family, being related to the brilliant miler Miesque.

Peter Chapple-Hyam clearly rates High Achieved a useful prospect, because the daughter of Dansili was handed an early entry in the Group One Fillies’ Mile at Ascot, and, although that engagement is not being taken up, her home work indicates big-race success at some stage in the future is far from pie-in-the-sky. Out of a mare by Rainbow Quest, High Achieved certainly has an excellent pedigree.

STATS THE WAY TO DO IT

Last-time-out successes have not been an especially strong recent pointer to success in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, due to be run this season at Ascot on Saturday, 27 September.

Just three victorious candidates within the past decade – Desert Prince (1998), Dubai Millennium (1999) and Starcraft (2006) – had finished first on their last outing before lining up.

Four winners in the same period – Observatory (2000), Summoner (2001), Falbrav (2003) and Ramonti (2007) – had made second spot on their latest start, while one – George Washington (2006) – had finished third.

The two others to add their names to this Group One mile event’s roll of honour in the last ten seasons – Where Or When (2002) and Rakti (2004) – had failed to make the significant placings.

QEII favourites have only a moderate strike-rate for a contest at the highest level, after registering four victories in the past decade – Desert Prince (100-30), Dubai Millennium (4-9), Falbrav (6-4) and George Washington (13-8) – so consistently backing market leaders has not been hugely profitable.

Supporting second-favourites has been horrendously expensive within the same timeframe – providing not a single return from 1998 onwards – during a period in which two winners – Observatory (14-1) and Summoner (33-1) – were sent off at double-figure odds.

Seven of the last ten horses to succeed in the QEII had previously collected over the big-race distance.

However, as this obviously means there were three exceptions – Observatory, Falbrav and Rakti – it is undoubtedly possible to argue a case for any non-specialist milers who might take part.

Falbrav and Rakti also figure among those to demonstrate that the long-running apparent stranglehold of three-year-olds – who thanks to Bahri (1995), Mark Of Esteem (1996), Air Express, Desert Prince, Dubai Millennium and Observatory had captured every renewal from 1995 to 2000 – is no longer statistically relevant.

Since the turn of the millennium, indeed, the Classic generation has proved successful only twice – through Where Or When and George Washington – while five-year-olds have struck four times – via Falbrav, Rakti, Starcraft and Ramonti – leaving Summoner as the only winner from the four-year-old division to score since Maroof registered a 66-1 shock back in 1994.

You have to go back even farther to find a victory for a filly or mare, the last to land this prize being Milligram in 1987, while Aidan O’Brien – courtesy of George Washington – is the only trainer based outside Britain to lift the trophy since Paddy Prendergast was successful with World Cup in 1968.

Saeed bin Suroor – responsible for Mark Of Esteem, Dubai Millennium, Summoner and Ramonti – has the best record among current trainers, with Sir Michael Stoute – successful through Shadeed (1985), Milligram and Zilzal (1989) – being his closest pursuer.

BIG RACE FOCUS

Six weeks ago, just after Rainbow View won Newmarket’s Sweet Solera Stakes, I suggested backing her at 8-1 for next season’s 1000 Guineas.

Now, having subsequently landed the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster, the John Gosden-trained filly is trading as low as 3-1 for the 2009 Newmarket Classic.

Readers who took my advice should therefore be in a strong position ahead of the Meon Valley Stud at Ascot on Saturday, 27 September, a race for which Rainbow View is odds-on.

On form, as I hope the ratings set out below make clear, the daughter of Dynaformer has outstanding claims at Ascot and, if she wins, her 1000 Guineas price is sure to shorten again.

Even a defeat, unless it turned out to be truly ignominious, would not see her odds for Newmarket lengthening a great deal and, at 8-1, she now looks a marvellous bet – or hedging opportunity.

Her most dangerous rivals in the Fillies’ Mile, providing all the entries stand their ground, appear to be Dreamtheimpossible, Fantasia and Golden Stream.

Each of those has registered a figure that indicates they can make an impact in Pattern races and, perhaps even more importantly, all won last time out and seem to be progressing.

None, however, has earned a mark within 8lb of Rainbow View at this stage and I shall be surprised and disappointed if Gosden’s filly fails to notch her fourth win in a row on the Berkshire course.