Horseracing News Tips & Betting Advice

Big Bound was slightly unlucky to be beaten on his first appearance at Haydock on 27 September, but the John Gosden-trained colt should soon earn compensation, judged on his half-length second behind Imposing. Gosden’s two-year-old showed courage in defeat when cracked across the nose by a rival’s jockey’s whip and, so long as he doesn’t react badly to this unfortunate incident, the son of US-based stallion Grand Slam ought to progress from his initial start. Out of a mare by Storm Cat and related to the more-than-useful Pampas Cat, Big Bound will eventually handle farther than the mile of his debut.

Bea Menace finished runner-up at Haydock on the previous afternoon’s card and, while the bare form of her second behind Cashleen is some way below the standard achieved by Big Bound, she is another who appears certain to benefit from a step up in trip. Bea Menace opened her career over six furlongs, considerably less than might have been expected of a daughter of Mizzen Mast from a Rainbow Quest mare, yet she showed encouraging speed in the closing stages to get within half a length of the winner. With her part-American pedigree in mind, trainer Paul Cole may be tempted by an all-weather maiden.

CODEBREAKERS

Nigel Twiston-Davies’s powerful jumping team has been in good shape for the best part of two years now, and the impression made by Unfurled at Market Rasen on 27 September suggested his future is equally bright. The six-year-old son of Unfuwain could not quite muster the pace needed to overturn hot-favourite Maslak on his hurdling debut, but, in taking second spot, just three and a three-quarter lengths adrift, he proved that at least some of the ability he formerly showed on the Flat is still intact. Unfurled ran with real credit when coming home seventh in the 2005 Derby – at that stage trained by John Dunlop – and there seems little doubt that, despite a long layoff, he will soon score over hurdles.

Black Jacari has also been a decent Flat performer in his time, earning an official rating in that sphere of 89, and his first attempt at hurdling at Market Rasen on 27 September hinted at decent prizes over the next few months. The three-year-old made his debut in an event much-liked by trainer Alan King, who has used it recently to introduce both Katchit and Franchoek, and, while Black Jacari is unlikely to emulate their grand level of achievement, he shaped nicely enough when second to Indian Groom. King’s charge pulled quite hard early on, and exhibited a tendency to hang right when first put under pressure, but his foibles can be mastered with patient schooling. Victories are confidently anticipated.

DIGGING THE DIRT

Brian Meehan toyed with the idea of supplementing Crowded House for Ascot’s Royal Lodge Stakes on 27 September, and still harbours plans to send him to the Breeders’ Cup fixture, so the colt should be capable of collecting an all-weather conditions event. That being the case, it seems sensible to take a good long look at this son of Rainbow Quest if he turns out for the opening one-contest at Kempton on Saturday, 4 October. Crowded House has already scored over track and trip and is in superb shape.

NOTED ON THE GALLOPS

Paul Nicholls is not a regular visitor to Uttoxeter, but his runners there have a decent record and a big run is anticipated from I’msingingtheblues if he tackles the two-mile-five-furlong novices’ chase at the Staffordshire venue on Sunday, 5 October. The six-year-old had a productive season over hurdles last term and has schooled well over fences this autumn. Good ground, not testing, would be ideal for him.

Michael Bell withdrew Piquante from a recent engagement at Haydock, but punters should not be put off by that fact when the two-year-old Selkirk filly finally makes her debut. Taking her out was purely precautionary, after the ground quickened up, and her workouts prior to that projected run suggested she will soon land a maiden. As her dam handled a mile and three-quarters, Piquante should stay well.

STATS THE WAY TO DO IT

Punters who consider the Cambridgeshire something of a lottery – especially those expensively affected by the 100-1 victory of Spanish Don in 2004 – may like to note that more often than not this bet-tempting Newmarket handicap is captured by one of the fancied contenders.

Admittedly, just two winners of the nine-furlong event in the past decade were sent off as favourite, that duo being Blue Monday (5-1 in 2005) and Pipedreamer (5-1 in 2008).

But other successes – by She’s Our Mare (11-1 in 1999), Katy Nowaitee (6-1 in 2000), Beauchamp Pilot (9-1 in 2002), Chivalry (14-1 in 2003) and Formal Decree (9-1 in 2006) – help demonstrate that form study, rather than pin-sticking, is the way to profit from the race.

Last-time-out winners have compiled a decent record within the last ten years, especially considering the ultra-competitive nature of the contest, with She’s Our Mare, Katy Nowaitee and Pipedreamer all lining up having scored on their latest outing.

Furthermore, only one of the remaining successful candidates in the period under scrutiny – it was that equine eccentric Spanish Don again, not surprisingly – had failed to make the frame on his last start.

An earlier victory over at least a mile seems a particularly strong pointer, since only I Cried For You (2001) has landed the Cambridgeshire in the past decade without fulfilling that criterion.

Eight of the remaining nine successful runners within my chosen timeframe had registered at least one win during the relevant campaign.

The exception in this category was Chivalry, who had previously won over the big-race distance but was making his seasonal reappearance.

Chivalry’s victory was one of four by four-year-olds in the last ten seasons – the others coming from Katy Nowaitee, Beauchamp Pilot and Blue Monday – and that generation has been the most successful from 1998 onwards.

Three-year-olds and six-year-olds are equal second-best in the generational pecking-order, the former group thanks to Lear Spear (1998), Formal Decree and Pipedreamer, the latter courtesy of She’s Our Mare, I Cried For You and Spanish Don.

Surprisingly, no five-year-old has been successful since Negus, way back in 1972, and the last winner aged more than six was the seven-year-old Rambo’s Hall in 1992.

Victories have been registered virtually right across the weight range, from Beauchamp Pilot’s 9st 5lb down to She’s Our Mare’s 7st 12lb, so that does not appear a factor to dwell upon for too long.

However, it probably should be noted that, although many horses have tried, no winner in the period under discussion here has managed to defy a 7lb penalty.

Evidence from the draw suggests it is hard to overcome a starting position in single figures, because only Spanish Don (stall 3) has done so in the last ten years, while seven winners in the same period have emerged from a stall numbered 17 or higher.

BIG RACE FOCUS

Two colts representing Aidan O’Brien’s stable were among the most talented among the six-day confirmed entries for Newmarket’s Middle Park Stakes on Friday, 3 October, according to my ratings.

However, although the Ballydoyle trainer has Mastercraftsman (rated 111) and Rip Van Winkle (101) in the Group One contest – along with the less able Sea Of Marmara (90) – neither seems likely to run.

In their absence, David Wachman’s Bushranger (105) would head my figures on the six-furlong event, ahead of Brian Meehan’s Gallagher (104) and Peter Chapple-Hyam’s supplementary entry Sayif.

Whatever the result, then, the race appears to have limited value as a 2000 Guineas ‘trial’ and, while I am sure Classic odds will be advertised afterwards, I suspect ignoring them will be the wisest policy.

The Middle Park rarely has much relevance for the Guineas these days – the last horse to collect both prizes was Rodrigo de Triano in 1991/92 – and the majority of recent scorers have been sprinters.

Newmarket’s Cheveley Park Stakes, run on the same day, has a much better record for producing 1000 Guineas heroines, the its last winner to graduate to Classic honours being Natagora in 2007/08.

However, reference to the rankings below ought to make it clear that no filly in training in Britain or Ireland is currently rated, according to my maths, within 5lb of John Gosden’s Rainbow View (108).

Among the Cheveley Park entries, indeed, none rates within 13lb of the Fillies’ Mile winner from Ascot on 27 September, with Alan Bailey’s Aspen Darlin getting closest thanks to her mark of 95.

Baileys Cacao (94), Danehill Destiny (93), Beyond Our Reach (92), Langs Lash (92) and Jargelle (91) come next on form, but I find it hard to imagine any of them making an impact in the 2009 Guineas.