Overpriced Horses
Chief Exec was unable to follow up his recent win at Wolverhampton when returning to Dunstall Park last Friday, but there was a valid excuse for his defeat. Again held up at the back of the field, his chances were severely compromised by the slow early pace – the 4f fraction of 52.11 seconds was significantly slower than the average for Wolverhampton’s 7f distance, and it was to his credit that once the pace quickened up he was again able to show a sharp turn of foot. However, the leaders had got away from him and despite finishing with a flourish Chief Exec was still only fourth at the line.
He’ll be a pound higher for this defeat next time, and as this was his second run in blinkers, punters might take the view that the headgear didn’t work second time around, so Chief Exec might be underbet next time.
Most all-weather fans can’t help but have noticed that field sizes have been much smaller than usual this winter. This has probably helped plenty of horses, but one that it definitely hasn’t benefited is Dudley Docker. There are two issues with this horse. The first is that he pulls hard, and is therefore always likely to be better with a strong pace. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that all six of his career wins have come in double-figure fields, and that he is 0-12 in single-figure fields. He had struggled to win in smaller fields on his last five starts prior to running in a 12-runner handicap at Wolverhampton, when he ran on in most eyecatching fashion in the closing stages to finish a never-nearer fifth; his jockey reported that the saddle had slipped.
The second issue, unfortunately, is that Dudley Docker is not very genuine, and has on occasions managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. However, he has been declared in a field of 12 at Lingfield on Saturday and is worth each-way support at likely double-figure odds.
Value Next Time is the name of this column, and it’s not absolutely certain that will apply to Canary Islands, as his next outing will be his third, after which he’ll be qualified for handicaps. But he definitely shaped with promise at Wolverhampton on Saturday in the maiden won by Al Samha – he was caught in an unpromising position towards the rear as the pace slackened around the halfway stage, but then stayed on really well despite hanging left in the straight to finish a never-nearer sixth. He’s been declared at Lingfield on Saturday but is only worth a small bet given that it looks a strong race and it’s his third run; keep an eye on him with a view to the run after, though.
Masked is rapidly turning into one of the unlucky horses of the all-weather season. He has now run four times for new trainer Ralph Beckett, all in competitive races against in-form rivals; he has finished third on all four occasions – and has been put up by the handicapper after all four defeats.
Moreover, his latest effort was a really good one. The fractions over the first ten furlongs of this extended 1m5f event were much the slowest of the eight races run over C&D this year, which would not have suited Masked, who has form over 2m, and he was held up too. Then Seb Sanders was short of room turning for home as the leaders quickened away, but Masked stayed on stoutly once in the clear, finishing faster than any of his rivals and giving the impression he would have won given a truly-run race and a clear run. So even though he has gone up another pound for that effort, he’s still one to be interested in next time.
Add comment September 29, 2008
All Weather Horses To Follow
SILVER PIVOTAL can become the first filly to win the Winter Derby, the highlight not only of Lingfield’s excellent card on Saturday, but also the whole all-weather season.
The all-weather’s showpiece record has been almost exclusively contested by male horses to date – only five of the 136 runners in the ten runnings of the race have been fillies or mares, and there hasn’t been a single filly or mare in any of the last five renewals.
However, Silver Pivotal is shaping up into a genuinely top-class prospect. She has had only five races to date, but on her fourth career outing she beat Sir Michael Stoute’s Promising lead in a Listed race at York; the runner-up went on to be short-headed in a Group One event two outings later.
After that race, a crack at the Breeders Cup was mentioned, but Silver Pivotal did not return to the track until she made her all-weather debut in January. Racing off a somewhat lenient mark of 98 in a competitive handicap, she travelled strongly and won with quite a bit in hand, despite making her challenge against what is sometimes the unfavoured far rail in the home straight. Her draw in stall 14 may put some people off, but since January 2007 there have been 49 1m2f races with more than 12 runners at Lingfield and horses with a double-figure draw have won 22 of them, so clearly it is not an insurmountable problem. Jamie Spencer is booked, the Butler stable is in fine form, and everything looks set for a big run.
There is no shortage of credible opposition, with the Johnston pair of Dubai’s Touch and Zaham, Irish raider Red Maloney and Michael Jarvis’ impressive recent winner Philatelist heading the dangers. However, for those wanting to back one at longer odds, Alfresco might run better than the official figures would suggest. His career form figures at Lingfield read 62114112, and his most recent effort when staying on strongly over 1m behind Jack Sullivan received a major boost by the latter’s clear-cut Wolverhampton win. Alfresco’s own recent lacklustre run at Dunstall Park is best ignored – he was held up off a pedestrian pace, and in any event he had been below form on his two previous efforts at Wolverhampton. He shapes as if worth a try at this trip and might be worth backing each way, especially as George Baker, who this column has flagged up as having an outstanding record over Lingfield’s tricky 1m2f distance, booked for the first time.
The supporting card is excellent, as is now customary at this meeting. None of the ten declared for the Spring Cup (2.40) are rated over 100, but there are a couple of horses with the potential to be smart, and Tasdeer is the one that catches the eye most. He was a most impressive winner on his second juvenile start at Yarmouth, but then pulled too hard when upped in class in the Group Three Somerville Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket on his only subsequent start. His trainer Michael Jarvis is seldom far wrong if he thinks he has a Pattern race horse on his hands and his record at Lingfield is outstanding (40 wins from 179 runs and a profit of 93 points since the Polytrack was installed).
The other Listed race, the Hever Sprint Stakes, looks very tricky. Excusez Moi would undoubtedly be hard to beat if repeating his recent 6f form, but although he’s always had plenty of talent, he hasn’t always reproduced it on the racecourse, as his record of 3 wins from 31 runs suggests, and I’m not sure he’s the ideal short-odds punt. Matsunosuke is a horse who improved massively last season, and he was an emphatic winner of both his all-weather starts last year, but it remains to be seen if he will be ready to win at this level first time out (though the race should be run to suit with Maltese Falcon, Silver Prelude and Merlins Dancer likely to ensure a good pace). Overall this looks a race best watched for the future, because as well as Matsunosuke, Esteem Machine is another seasonal debutant who should be competitive in the top sprint handicaps later on.
The angle in the 7f handicap (2.10) could be to back Ceremonial Jade beforehand and then look to lay him in running. He is a strong-travelling horse who goes really well here (form at Lingfield reads 122312, excellent second in a 6f Listed race here last time) but on occasions he has not found quite as much as had seemed likely over 7f+ and he is likely to trade at pretty short odds turning for home given how well he usually travels.
Grande Caiman is a fairly confident selection to land the Cortaflex Handicap (4.20). Richard Hannon’s four-year-old provided an excellent example of what can go wrong when an inexperienced 7lb claimer is on board a hold-up horse. Everything went wrong for Charles Eddery at last time, and he suddenly found himself around ten lengths behind and facing an impossible task on the home turn. On Saturday Grande Caiman returns to Lingfield, where he’s four from four, and Richard Hughes takes over the reins. The horse is not straightforward, but that hasn’t stopped him at Lingfield so far, and he can regain the winning thread here despite facing a multitude of in-form rivals (including Polish Power, six lengths in front of him at Wolverhampton but previously comfortably held in second behind the selection over this course and distance). The presence of new course record holder John Terry, the visored Tilapia and Rationale make this the most interesting 1m4f handicap seen at Lingfield this season.
In the other races, Dudley Docker is worth an each-way interest in the finale (see Value Next Time below), whilst Bartercard is worth a chance to prove his promising Flat debut over 7f was no fluke in a competitive-looking 1m maiden (4.55).
Add comment September 29, 2008
Hot Horses To Follow
ARAZAN
John Oxx, trainer
“We are looking at the Dewhurst for him now and we just have to hope we get some decent ground. I would expect the ground to be right for us there hopefully, so that’s what we’re looking at.”
ASPEN DARLIN
Winner at Ayr on Saturday
Alan Bailey, trainer
“We have decided to supplement her for the Cheveley Park Stakes. She did it really well at Ayr and she has now won on good to firm ground and heavy so she seems versatile.”
KALAHARI GOLD
Winner at Newbury on Friday
Andrew Balding, trainer
“He’s improving rapidly and is going to be a really smart horse. We’ll go for the Challenge Stakes next.”
KATIYRA
John Oxx, trainer
“We are looking at the Prix de l’Opera for her now and I think she deserves to take her chance after her impressive win in the Blandford Stakes last time. She does handle soft ground and if the ground is going to be on the firm side of good in France, I’m not sure we would run. But as long as it’s not too quick, we will let her take her chance.”
LARKWING
Eric McNamara, trainer
“Whether he is good enough to win from his current rating is another question in a competitive race. There is also hurdling to go back to and I’d say he’ll either run in the Cesarewitch or the good hurdle at Tipperary.”
TAAMEER
Winner at Newbury on Friday
Marcus Tregoning, trainer
“This is the perfect race to introduce potential Classic winners. I hope this one might be, although there’s a long way to go. He’ll go for the Autumn Stakes at Ascot next – the Nayef route. He’s bred to stay a mile and a half and is only going to get better, especially with a winter on his back.”
TRAFFIC GUARD
Jane Chapple-Hyam, trainer
“I was thrilled with his run at Leopardstown and the plan is to take on the winner again in the English Champion Stakes. We are looking forward to have another crack at the winner at Newmarket.”
WAVE ASIDE
Winner at Newbury on Friday
Brian Meehan, trainer
“He did it well and we’ll play it by ear now, but he might be one for the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy.”
Add comment September 29, 2008
Soul City Primed For Guineas Run
The Parknasilla Hotel Goffs Million raceday at the Curragh on Sunday belonged solely to Richard Hannon who utterly dominated proceedings by winning both the colts and fillies races.
In the space of an hour and a half Hannon picked up in excess of two million euros in prize money which remarkably elevated him to third in the Irish trainers’ championship.
It has been an amazing year for Hannon’s juvenile team and the trainer certainly produced his raiding party in the form of their lives for their Curragh assignments.
After winning a French Group 3 last time out, Soul City looked one of the leading contenders for the colts Million and he duly justified his position as the market leader with a superb front-running performance that saw him fend off Gan Amhras by half a length. He could well win another good prize if turned out again this year and it wouldn’t come as any surprise to see him show up well in one of the three main Guineas next May.
The runner-up turned in a fine effort on just his third start and his first since winning a Naas maiden in July. He stayed on in very pleasing style over the final quarter of a mile and can be rated a good middle-distance prospect for Jim Bolger.
In the Fillies Million, Minor Vamp struck for the Hannon team as she defeated stablemate Baileys Cacao. Her victory was a further boost to Rainbow View who had her back in third when winning a Newmarket Group 3 in August. Minor Vamp, a daughter of the brilliant Hawk Wing, did very well to win from a potentially-costly outside draw. She can make her mark at Stakes level.
Among those that caught the eye behind her was the third-placed Samba School who hadn’t run since finishing down the field in a Curragh maiden in July. The Kevin Prendergast-trained inmate is an interesting prospect and it won’t come as any surprise to see her improve her handler’s already-excellent record with the progeny of Sahm.
Earlier on the card at the Curragh John Oxx’s Sea The Stars cemented his position as a juvenile of some promise with a half-length victory over stablemater Mourayan in the Beresford Stakes.
The half-brother to Galileo showed good improvement from his maiden win at Leopardstown to take this prize. Interestingly his trainer believes that he will be better on quicker ground and it is not hard to envisage the Cape Cross colt making sustained progress through the ranks next season.
While his victory earned Sea The Stars a flurry of quotes for the Epsom Derby Oxx did indicate that he could start out over a mile next spring. He is a bright prospect and it is worth noting the trainer’s last two winners of this race – Azamour and Alamshar – both made up into top-drawer three-year-olds. The likeable and very genuine Mourayan could yet put the form to the test in the Racing Post Trophy.
Also on the juvenile front David Wachman once again showed the strength of his hand in the juvenile fillies division as he sent out Chintz to record a clear cut success in the Group 3 C L Weld Park Stakes.
Off the track since July, the Danehill Dancer filly had her rivals in trouble when she struck the front around a quarter of a mile from home. She galloped on strongly to the line to account for the English raider and May Hill Stakes third Lahaleeb. Chintz has the makings of a fine middle-distance filly for 2009.
Dermot Weld landed the Irish Cesarewitch with the teak-tough three-year-old Suailce whose winning effort indicated that she could develop into quite a decent stayer next term while the Rosewell House trainer’s smart sprinter Le Cadre Noir won his first race since arriving in Ireland as he outpointed a field headed by Benbaun in the Testimonial Stakes.
Elsewhere Ger Lyons’ best-ever season continued apace as Pasar Silbano landed the 100,000 euro Goffs Sportsman’s Challenge.
While he had to settle for second and third in the Goffs (C&G) Million, Jim Bolger enjoyed an excellent Saturday at Gowran when he notched up a treble that was headed by the victory of Shreyas in the extended 1m 1f fillies Group 3.
A fine second to Unsung Heroine on her debut at Fairyhouse in July, the half-sister to Creachadoir and Youmzain was having just her fourth race in a very competitive renewal of this race and turned in a fine effort to see off She’s Our Mark an Soft Morning. She has the makings of quite a classy four-year-old.
Multiple champion National Hunt trainer Noel Meade reached a huge milestone on Saturday at Navan when he recorded the 2000th victory of his career as Rinroe landed the beginners’ chase.
Meade also unveiled quite a useful looking bumper horse in Donnas Palm who made short work of his rivals to make a winning debut. The third-placed Stakers caught the eye as he travelled through the race every bit as well as the winner. He could make his mark in this sphere before long.
Muhannak struck a blow for the English raider at Dundalk on Friday when he outpointed the consistent Mr Medici in the Listed Diamond Stakes while Paddy The Pro produced quite a taking effort to make short work of his rivals in the valuable six-furlong nursery. He can hold his own in better company.
Add comment September 29, 2008
Stars Shines Brightly In Beresford
Sea The Stars (7-4) came out on top in a closely-fought renewal of the Juddmonte Beresford Stakes at the Curragh.
Trainer John Oxx, who won this race in 2002 and 2003 with the brilliant pair Alamshar and Azamour, also saddled another leading contender in Mourayan.
But jockey Mick Kinane picked the right one and exuded confidence aboard Sea The Stars.
The half-brother to Galileo took a little while to assert himself once hitting the front, but was in command in the final furlong and had half a length in reserve of Mourayan for a stable one-two.
Bookmakers had mixed reactions on the winner for next year’s Derby. He is 12-1 from 20s with Paddy Power, now 14-1 with William Hill – but only 20s with VC Bet.
Oxx said: “The ground is probably a bit dead for him and we are still not quite sure what his trip is – despite the fact he is a half-brother to Galileo and out of an Arc winner.
“The spring will tell us more, but he will have a Guineas entry.”
Add comment September 29, 2008
Raven’s Pass Set For America
It is a long way from Ascot to Santa Anita but John Gosden and Jimmy Fortune will doubtless be looking forward to the journey next month.
The duo have at least one true Breeders’ Cup contender in Raven’s Pass, while Rainbow View will also be popular if she makes the trip to California following their victories in Berkshire.
Gosden, who plied his trade stateside for a number of years, had warned that Raven’s Pass was being trained with America in mind and might not be quite at the top of his game for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
That view proved totally incorrect as the colt, running in the colours of Princess Haya for the first time, comprehensively reversed the form with old adversary Henrythenavigator.
The latter had proved too good on each of the three previous occasions the pair had met in the 2000 Guineas, St James’s Palace and Sussex Stakes but he met his match this time.
Gosden said: “It all went wrong in the Guineas from the draw but he ran a blinder in the St James’s Palace.
“We knew this time we would be a little handier, that was the only plan – be handier.
“The plan is now to go to the Breeders’ Cup, whether that is for the Mile or the Classic we will have to see – he sees his races out much better now.
“He has been on the go since February, but he looks great in his coat.”
Rainbow View also dug deep to maintain her unbeaten record in the Meon Valley Stud Fillies’ Mile and give Gosden and Fortune a notable double.
The Dynaformer filly had won her previous three starts on the bridle but Fantasia served it up to her at the furlong marker and Rainbow View responded in style for a two-and-a-half-length win.
Gosden added: “She’s not very big but she’s all heart – you find a lot of the very good ones are not big.”
Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes collected the biggest of all sales races as Soul City refused to give away the Parknasilla Hotel Goffs Million at the Curragh on Sunday.
The combination’s Penny’s Gift took the valuable event at Ascot on Friday with a late charge but it was forcing tactics from the front here aboard the French Group Three winner and 5-2 favourite.
He drifted from the rail as Akrisrun challenged up his inside but kept finding more to hold off Jim Bolger’s pair Gan Amhras and Intense Focus.
Hannon said: “There’s no reason why he would not go on and be a nice three-year-old.
“He’s one we could pack up this year and maybe have a go at the Guineas.”
Hannon then proceeded to dominate the Parknasilla Hotel Goffs Fillies Million – although Hughes was on the wrong one with Baileys Cacao finishing second to stablemate Minor Vamp.
Favourite Luminous Eyes threw down a determined challenge on the far side but she had no answer to the devastating turn of foot demonstrated by Minor Vamp (10-1) and Michael Kinane in the centre.
A thoroughly respectable third to Rainbow View at Newmarket 50 days ago, she settled the event very quickly, despite a late effort from 9-1 chance Baileys Cacao.
Sea The Stars (7-4) came out on top in a closely-fought renewal of the Juddmonte Beresford Stakes.
Trainer John Oxx, who won this race in 2002 and 2003 with the brilliant pair Alamshar and Azamour, also saddled another leading contender in Mourayan.
But Kinane picked the right one and exuded confidence aboard Sea The Stars.
The half-brother to Galileo took a little while to assert himself once hitting the front, but was in command in the final furlong and had half a length in reserve of Mourayan for a stable one-two.
Bookmakers had mixed reactions on the winner for next year’s Derby. He is 12-1 from 20s with Paddy Power, now 14-1 with William Hill – but 20s with VC Bet.
Nearly-horse King’s Apostle picked the perfect moment to start winning again in the Group Two John Guest Diadem Stakes at Ascot, while Sixties Icon overcame a sluggish start to take the Grosvenor Casinos Cumberland Lodge Stakes.
Add comment September 29, 2008
Dark Horses | Betting Tips
PROMISING NEWCOMERS
Winged Harriet should have little difficulty in winning before the end of this Flat season, judged on her very narrow defeat in a six-furlong maiden at Newmarket on 19 September. William Haggas’s filly lost out by just a short head behind the more experienced colt Archie Rice and was closing so strongly that only a stride or two after the post she was in front. Winged Harriet appears guaranteed to improve for her debut, as most of Haggas’s two-year-olds do, and her pedigree suggests stepping up in trip will be in her favour next time. By Hawk Wing, she is out of Warning mare whose best distance was one mile.
Taameer earned Derby quotes after his first-time-out victory in the Haynes, Hanson and Clarke Stakes at Newbury on that same day and, though I shall remain sceptical about his Classics prospects until he beats more testing opposition, there are sound reasons for believing he can score again. Taameer came home half a length ahead of Full Toss, while in receipt of 4lb, and that bare form indicates he has a fair chance of making a mark at Listed level. His breeding offers hope of progression, too, as he is by Beat Hollow out of a Damister mare, which suggests a mile and a quarter may be perfect for him next term.
Just thirty-five minutes later on that Newbury card, Phillipina caught my eye when finishing seventh in what looked a warmish seven-furlong maiden event for juvenile fillies. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, this well-related daughter of Medicean could never quite muster the pace required to get to grips with the winner, Lissarina, but she stayed on nicely without being hard pressed and was beaten only a little more than three lengths in total. Phillipina is from a family of Group-class performers, such as Cesare, Embraced, Hellenic, Islington and Nowhere To Exit, so she should certainly improve with experience.
CODEBREAKERS
Bearing in mind the sound nature of the contest in which Phillipina took seventh spot, it seems prudent for me to point out that the runner-up, Super Sleuth , showed marked improvement on her earlier form when running Lissarina to half a length. Super Sleuth had also finished only seventh on her debut, but, like so many of Brian Meehan’s juveniles, she looked a great deal sharper second time out. By Selkirk, and from a fast family, she may never want much farther than seven, but she can notch a success soon.
Jumping fans are already gearing up for a winter of thrills and the early signs are that Alan King’s team is, once again, in tremendous shape. So, while the three-year-old Tuanku may not prove one of King’s superstars between now and the Cheltenham Festival, my advice is to follow the son of Tagula until he gets beaten. Tuanku got his hurdling career off to the best possible start by landing a two-mile event at Plumpton on 21 September and connections are more than hopeful of a follow-up win under a penalty.
DIGGING THE DIRT
I noted last week that the heavy rainfall experienced this summer had served to raise the standard of all-weather maidens and another case in point was the divided seven-furlong contest at Kempton on 22 September. Both legs should throw up a good few future winners and my first pick of the beaten runners was Ghanaati , who filled third place in the (much faster) first division behind Ave. Ghanaati lost out by an aggregate of around three lengths, and, considering both the winner and the runner-up, Say No Now, had already shown distinct promise, her debut effort was highly commendable. It was made even more so by the fact that this Barry Hills-trained filly forfeited ground with a sluggish start and was then obliged to make her challenge in the middle of a track, when staying close to the inside rail is usually the best manoeuvre. Ghanaati should certainly have gained from her first experience of racing and she is bred to benefit from longer distances, being by Giant’s Causeway out of Sarayir, a more than useful winner over a mile and a quarter from the family of Nashwan, Unfuwain and Nayef.
NOTED ON THE GALLOPS
Henry Cecil is poised to launch the racing career of Alpha Tauri and, if his morning exercises can be used as a guide to his ability, the colt should not take long to collect. He has been shaping up nicely, rubbing shoulders with some decent two-year-old winners, and ought to be fit for his first outing. A son of Aldebaran, Alpha Tauri comes from a fine family, being related to the brilliant miler Miesque.
Peter Chapple-Hyam clearly rates High Achieved a useful prospect, because the daughter of Dansili was handed an early entry in the Group One Fillies’ Mile at Ascot, and, although that engagement is not being taken up, her home work indicates big-race success at some stage in the future is far from pie-in-the-sky. Out of a mare by Rainbow Quest, High Achieved certainly has an excellent pedigree.
STATS THE WAY TO DO IT
Last-time-out successes have not been an especially strong recent pointer to success in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, due to be run this season at Ascot on Saturday, 27 September.
Just three victorious candidates within the past decade – Desert Prince (1998), Dubai Millennium (1999) and Starcraft (2006) – had finished first on their last outing before lining up.
Four winners in the same period – Observatory (2000), Summoner (2001), Falbrav (2003) and Ramonti (2007) – had made second spot on their latest start, while one – George Washington (2006) – had finished third.
The two others to add their names to this Group One mile event’s roll of honour in the last ten seasons – Where Or When (2002) and Rakti (2004) – had failed to make the significant placings.
QEII favourites have only a moderate strike-rate for a contest at the highest level, after registering four victories in the past decade – Desert Prince (100-30), Dubai Millennium (4-9), Falbrav (6-4) and George Washington (13-8) – so consistently backing market leaders has not been hugely profitable.
Supporting second-favourites has been horrendously expensive within the same timeframe – providing not a single return from 1998 onwards – during a period in which two winners – Observatory (14-1) and Summoner (33-1) – were sent off at double-figure odds.
Seven of the last ten horses to succeed in the QEII had previously collected over the big-race distance.
However, as this obviously means there were three exceptions – Observatory, Falbrav and Rakti – it is undoubtedly possible to argue a case for any non-specialist milers who might take part.
Falbrav and Rakti also figure among those to demonstrate that the long-running apparent stranglehold of three-year-olds – who thanks to Bahri (1995), Mark Of Esteem (1996), Air Express, Desert Prince, Dubai Millennium and Observatory had captured every renewal from 1995 to 2000 – is no longer statistically relevant.
Since the turn of the millennium, indeed, the Classic generation has proved successful only twice – through Where Or When and George Washington – while five-year-olds have struck four times – via Falbrav, Rakti, Starcraft and Ramonti – leaving Summoner as the only winner from the four-year-old division to score since Maroof registered a 66-1 shock back in 1994.
You have to go back even farther to find a victory for a filly or mare, the last to land this prize being Milligram in 1987, while Aidan O’Brien – courtesy of George Washington – is the only trainer based outside Britain to lift the trophy since Paddy Prendergast was successful with World Cup in 1968.
Saeed bin Suroor – responsible for Mark Of Esteem, Dubai Millennium, Summoner and Ramonti – has the best record among current trainers, with Sir Michael Stoute – successful through Shadeed (1985), Milligram and Zilzal (1989) – being his closest pursuer.
BIG RACE FOCUS
Six weeks ago, just after Rainbow View won Newmarket’s Sweet Solera Stakes, I suggested backing her at 8-1 for next season’s 1000 Guineas.
Now, having subsequently landed the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster, the John Gosden-trained filly is trading as low as 3-1 for the 2009 Newmarket Classic.
Readers who took my advice should therefore be in a strong position ahead of the Meon Valley Stud at Ascot on Saturday, 27 September, a race for which Rainbow View is odds-on.
On form, as I hope the ratings set out below make clear, the daughter of Dynaformer has outstanding claims at Ascot and, if she wins, her 1000 Guineas price is sure to shorten again.
Even a defeat, unless it turned out to be truly ignominious, would not see her odds for Newmarket lengthening a great deal and, at 8-1, she now looks a marvellous bet – or hedging opportunity.
Her most dangerous rivals in the Fillies’ Mile, providing all the entries stand their ground, appear to be Dreamtheimpossible, Fantasia and Golden Stream.
Each of those has registered a figure that indicates they can make an impact in Pattern races and, perhaps even more importantly, all won last time out and seem to be progressing.
None, however, has earned a mark within 8lb of Rainbow View at this stage and I shall be surprised and disappointed if Gosden’s filly fails to notch her fourth win in a row on the Berkshire course.
Add comment September 28, 2008
Well Armed holds off Tiago in Goodwood
Trainer Eoin Harty and the WinStar Farm of Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt are going into the Breeders’ Cup Classic Well Armed.
Well Armed joined stablemate Colonel John as a runner in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Oct. 25 by virtue of a gritty victory on Saturday in the Grade 1, $500,000 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meeting.
Well Armed ($5.40), the favorite, outfinished Tiago by one length, with Albertus Maximus another three-quarters of a length farther back in third in the field of 10. Aaron Gryder rode Well Armed, who was timed in 1:47.11 for 1 1/8 miles on Pro-Ride.
Of the other better-known runners in the field, Surf Cat was fourth, Spirit One fifth, and Mast Track eighth.
“He just saves all his energy for when it’s needed,” Gryder said. “He’s just a good horse and he showed he doesn’t need the lead to win.”
The Goodwood completed a card on which six Grade 1 races were run, five of which offered automatic berths to Breeders’ Cup races Oct. 24-25 via the Win and You’re In program. The Goodwood provided a spot in the 1 1/4-mile Classic for Well Armed.
Well Armed sat third, just outside leaders Informed and Mast Track, through fractions of 23.26 seconds for the opening quarter-mile, 46.81 seconds for a half-mile, and 1:10.31 for six furlongs. As the field moved around the far turn, Well Armed loomed up three paths wide to vie for the lead, and Surf Cat rallied in the four path.
Surf Cat flattened out inside the furlong pole, but Tiago came flying down the center of the track, with Albertus Maximus just inside him. But Gryder deftly guided Well Armed to the middle of the track, believing that Well Armed would reach down and find more when realizing his challengers were advancing.
Well Armed, 5, has won six times in 19 starts. He was second to Go Between in the Pacific Classic in his prior start, and earlier this year was third when chasing Curlin in the Dubai World Cup.
Add comment September 28, 2008
Wait a While punches Breeders’ Cup ticket
The Santa Anita turf course is playing a pivotal role in Wait a While’s career. Saturday, she remained unbeaten in three starts on the course by winning the $400,000 Yellow Ribbon Stakes for the second time. She won the race in 2006.
Saturday’s race was a prep to the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf here on Oct. 24. Wait a While earned an automatic berth to the Filly and Mare Turf, subject to the payment of entry fees.
“Hopefully, she’ll go 4-for-4,” said Michael McCarthy, assistant trainer to Todd Pletcher. “Here and Saratoga, she loves.”
It will be easy to support Wait a While in the Filly and Mare Turf after her win on Saturday. Ridden by John Velazquez, Wait a While ($4) ran 1 1/4 miles on turf in 1:59.16, finishing three-quarters of a length in front of Vacare. Black Mamba, who raced in traffic on the final turn, rallied to finish third in the field of 10 fillies and mares.
McCarthy credited Velazquez for guiding Wait a While into third-place for the first six furlongs, stalking pacesetter Live Life.
“A lot of credit goes to Johnny,” McCarthy said. “He got her to settle on the first turn.”
Owned by Arindel Farm, Wait a While has won 12 of 23 starts and $2,181,917. She has won three stakes this year, including the Grade 2 San Gorgonio Handicap here in January.
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